Electoral Predictions!

[Danoz]

http://www.glasko.com/prediction.jpg
Think I'm crazy? Maybe not.

I see Bush winning Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio and Florida-- while Kerry will only take Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Pick Yourself! (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6028629/?ta=y) We'll see if my prediction is more wishful thinking from an eternal optimist :)

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[JadussD]

>

I think there's gonna be several disputed states with recounts, and America will continue its downward decent into isolation and incompetence as society splits apart at the seams.

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[Danoz]

> I think there's gonna be several disputed states with
> recounts, and America will continue its downward decent into
> isolation and incompetence as society splits apart at the
> seams.

...That would make you the pessimist


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[Fla Flash]

You're smoking crack. <img src=smilies/headshake.gif>

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[Crazy_MYKL]

Optimists believe we live in the best of all possible worlds. Pessimists fear this is true.

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[SpaceTiger]

Good link. I particularly liked Tim Russert's analysis. I dunno who's gonna win, but there are several factors which could give Kerry an edge:

1. 2% undecided voters. Historically, undecided voters swing for the challenger, so Kerry is expected to get more of these.
2. Turnout. Democrats are unusually passionate about this election and a high turnout, particularly among young people, could give them an edge.
3. Traditional polls don't get people with only cell phones (i.e. no landline). These are mostly young people that tend to swing Democratic.

There are a lot of other factors, but those are the ones I've heard about so far. This terrorism thing definitely has the potential to swing things toward Bush, so that also needs to be taken into account.

I have a presentation to do for Wednesday, so I may not be able to watch the election results come in. I'm gonna try hard to finish it tonight. Regardless of the results, this is history in the making, so I suggest that even the most apathetic of you watch it closely. As JadussD pointed out, there could be legal disputes over the swing states, and our democracy could even be at risk.

I'm not a religious man, but I pray this all goes smoothly.

<P ID="signature">----
"And dreams may come
That are everlasting
Though all just plastic too..." </P>

[Danoz]

> Optimists believe we live in the best of all possible
> worlds. Pessimists fear this is true.

Nah, optimism is foward looking.

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[Octocrook]

> Think I'm crazy? Maybe not.

I don't know about most of the states, but the last Fox News poll on FL showed the president being behind 5 pts. It looks like all the undecided states are conveniently painted red. There has been absolutely no indication that Bush will win by that much.

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[prisonpants]

<a href=http://www.tripias.com/state/>http://www.tripias.com/state/</a>

If this map is accurate, we're all pretty fucked.

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[GeminiMan]

Redskins lost. Kerry for the upset.

After Danoz reminded me of all the Bush jokes that would be going around for another four years if he won... I hope to God that John Kerry takes this election.

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[SpaceTiger]

> If this map is accurate, we're all pretty fucked.

How about http://www.electoral-vote.com/this</a> one?

These are all within the margin of error. The race is too close to be determined from polls.

<P ID="signature">----
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Though all just plastic too..." </P>

[Lillymon]

I decided to have a bit of fun and played around with the map myself. Here's the changes I've made:

Hawaii: Not sure why Danoz put this as undecided, they're leaning towards Kerry as it is. So I gave this state to Kerry.

Florida: Nearly a dead heat in the last election, I gave this to Kerry too since I'm being optimistic here.

Minnesota: It may be undecided now, but by past results, I'm giving this to Kerry rather than Bush too.

Changing these three gives the election to Kerry by 279-259. Florida is certainly the key state here, since having it as anything less than a Kerry state gives the election to Bush.

All in all, this is very fun, but I haven't tried to call the election up to this point and I'm not about to start now.

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[Lenophis]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr>

Think I'm crazy? Maybe not.

I see Bush winning Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio and Florida-- while Kerry will only take Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Pick Yourself! We'll see if my prediction is more wishful thinking from an eternal optimist :)

<hr></blockquote>
I think you are right about Florida, the rest I have no idea about. You see, Florida has since upgraded their polling systems (thank God), but, another Florida can happen. I'm talking about Ohio, for they still use that POS punch card system. Nice to know some people still live in the 1920's. <img src=smilies/erm.gif>

Your optimism is sorely misplaced. You see, the Redskins lost on Sunday. For 68 years, the Redskins final home game before the election has 100% accurately predicted the election outcome. If the Redskins win, the current incumbent remains. If the Redskins lose, then the enbumcent is ousted. Final score 28-14 for those that are curious. If you are wondering about stats, 16 out of 16 times is pretty good. It accurately predicted the last Bush ousting.

One thing I notice though...
<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr>

We'll see if my prediction is more wishful thinking from an eternal optimist :)

<hr></blockquote>
Are you NERVOUS about Dubya losing? You must be, otherwise you'd be having the utmost confidence... <img src=smilies/magbiggrin.gif>

It would seem many forces are at work against Dubya... but, we'll know in about 3 weeks when the election is decided. Some on IRC have said that there's no way the election will be decided tonight.

<P ID="signature">
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[Gavin_86]

These projected victories are only according to mainstream media polls, and with voter turnout skewing possibly all polls to hell and back, who can say how representative they are?

> I see Bush winning:
> Nevada

check

> New Mexico,

check

> Iowa

Kerry Victory

> Ohio

meh, let's give this one to Bush.

> Florida

Kerry, still bitter floridians, disenfranchised minorities.

> while Kerry will only take:

> Wisconsin

check

> Pennsylvania

Rasmussen and Strategic vision polls have both given Kerry the edge for quite a while, this one is in Kerry's pocket.

> and New Hampshire

check

Hawaii is another tough call, as it turning to a red state was seen as completely unexpected by many analysts. Either way, my road map to the presidency does not require a Hawaii Kerry victory.

Nader will pull 1% max, as many other people have suggested, even if that. I feel he will go under 1% personally, but we will see. I call the other thrid party candidates getting more than Nader this year, people have learned their lessons and are still very bitter.

for all the well known reasons i project a Kerry presidency, youth voting turnout blah blah blah all that other good stuff. The Osama bin Laden tape, from my perspective, gave neither candidate any measurable amount of momentum and only acted as a small hiccup in their scheduled campaign stops, if even that.

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[IceWolf20]

> > Optimists believe we live in the best of all possible
> > worlds. Pessimists fear this is true.
>
> Nah, optimism is foward looking.

Both optimists and pessimists look foward....Its only the realists that can see without being blinded by their own self absorbed vision of what the world is. Unfortunatly, any optimist that sees a realist will label them a pessimest, b/c they can't acknowledge the truth.

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[Danoz]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr>

Both optimists and pessimists look foward

<hr></blockquote>

Agreed! It's a different way of viewing the past, present and future.

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr>

....Its only the realists that can see without being blinded by their own self absorbed vision of what the world is. Unfortunatly, any optimist that sees a realist will label them a pessimest, b/c they can't acknowledge the truth.

<hr></blockquote>

Well, I'm a self-proclaimed optimist, but an optimist can be realistic. There's a difference between believing falsities and seeing the best in any given situation. In the end, we're all "realists" because we believe what we feel. Someone could be a self-proclaimed "realist" that sees the worst in everything... that person is likely a pessimist. And try to remember, I'm not talking about blindness to reality-- just a different lens to view it with.

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[ricardobaltazar]

>
> Think I'm crazy? Maybe not.
>

You are crazy.

It's going to be Kerry by few votes. I predict a near repet of last year where several states are too clse to call and a big mess in one state.

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