Danoz
10-27-2004, 03:20 AM
As you all know, I live in Ohio. Four years ago, Gore pulled out of Ohio very early and shifted almost all his focus to Florida. Many Democrats believe that Gore would have won the election had he campaigned in Ohio a few days before the election. (Often, when a candidate concedes a state, he loses some votes. Some potential supporters of that candidate see their voting as worthless… and why not? If the candidate doesn’t even believe he’ll win the state, why bother?) Many people just don’t value their vote enough to make it to the polls for a “lost causeâ€. Gore lost Ohio by 3.5 percent. Kerry has acknowledged this, and he could end up winning Ohio this year (keep in mind, while historically not a single Republican president has been elected without Ohio—it’s not impossible, and it’s even likely this time around). I don’t have to tell Ohioans that both candidates have been vigorously touring Ohio. At one point, John Kerry actually spoke at my old High School and the President has been within driving distance twice. Kerry has really been targeting factory townships like Alliance and Timken where many jobs have been lost, and voter turnout is generally low—smart move on his part. I believe many of these people have become one-issue-votes, that issue being free trade and regulation of outsourcing. So, there’s some half-a-million new voters registered in Ohio now (not including recent mail-ins). Will they vote? Possibly, and I think new voters like myself will appear for the most part. Why? It’s a close election and people in education settings are passionate about it.
My prediction? Bush wins in the popular vote and the election. Right now, according the economist, he’s currently leading at an average of 2 points in all swings states—Kerry still has the biggest hurdle. Don’t be fooled by popular polls, they’ll be all over place and all of them well within the margin of error. We certainly discuss them a lot, but ultimately, the state polls will decide this election… and in the most important of swing state, the President is doing very well. He’s up 10 points in Wisconsin! Six in Missouri and Pennsylvania and a good 4-5 in Ohio and Iowa (recent Economist statistics). Kerry is holding strong in Michigan, but that’s it.
Now, Harvard just did a study of college students. They found that students in general are passionate about politics, and they’ll likely cast votes. A majority of them will be voting for Kerry, and we especially saw this break when the draft rumor swept campuses. At least point, I feel sorry for somebody who honestly believes Bush will bring back the draft. Secondly, congress held a “mock vote†for the draft, and I believe only 2-3 congressmen actually voted to reinstate it. Put your worries aside, vote your conscience. However, the rise in polls for young voters, I would say, can also be accounted that “undecideds†statistically break for the challenger as it gets closer to election time. According to the study, 52 percent would vote for Kerry and 39 percent would vote for the President. One thing I find fascinating, is the expansion of religion among college students. Where Christianity has really been fading in many parts of the western world, it’s actually growing in my generation. While that’s a whole different subject, it’s something I sincerely hope continues.
Any other predictions?
<P ID="signature">http://glasko.com/danozoctober.jpg
http://www.georgewbush.com/http://www.glasko.com/bc.jpg</a></P>
My prediction? Bush wins in the popular vote and the election. Right now, according the economist, he’s currently leading at an average of 2 points in all swings states—Kerry still has the biggest hurdle. Don’t be fooled by popular polls, they’ll be all over place and all of them well within the margin of error. We certainly discuss them a lot, but ultimately, the state polls will decide this election… and in the most important of swing state, the President is doing very well. He’s up 10 points in Wisconsin! Six in Missouri and Pennsylvania and a good 4-5 in Ohio and Iowa (recent Economist statistics). Kerry is holding strong in Michigan, but that’s it.
Now, Harvard just did a study of college students. They found that students in general are passionate about politics, and they’ll likely cast votes. A majority of them will be voting for Kerry, and we especially saw this break when the draft rumor swept campuses. At least point, I feel sorry for somebody who honestly believes Bush will bring back the draft. Secondly, congress held a “mock vote†for the draft, and I believe only 2-3 congressmen actually voted to reinstate it. Put your worries aside, vote your conscience. However, the rise in polls for young voters, I would say, can also be accounted that “undecideds†statistically break for the challenger as it gets closer to election time. According to the study, 52 percent would vote for Kerry and 39 percent would vote for the President. One thing I find fascinating, is the expansion of religion among college students. Where Christianity has really been fading in many parts of the western world, it’s actually growing in my generation. While that’s a whole different subject, it’s something I sincerely hope continues.
Any other predictions?
<P ID="signature">http://glasko.com/danozoctober.jpg
http://www.georgewbush.com/http://www.glasko.com/bc.jpg</a></P>